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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2015-11-04T14:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-11-04T14:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9643/-1
CME Note: CME is connected to a M3.7 flare at AR 12443 very close to disk center, GOES light curve is a long duration event, with extensive post-event loops visible in AIA 131. Large, fast wave emanating from flare site, dimming to the west and north of the AR in AIA 193, dark absorption material ejected at west end of AR seen in AIA 304
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-06T17:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 6.0
Dst min. in nT: -87
Dst min. time: 2015-11-07T08:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-07T13:00Z (-6.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 90.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 6.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2015-11-04T18:09Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 608
Longitude (deg): 11
Latitude (deg): -1
Half-angular width (deg): 37

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Mike Adkin (edited/updated by Chris Bulmer)

Lead Time: 34.98 hour(s)
Difference: -19.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2015-11-05T06:35Z

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